The New York Times writes: “Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.
In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out”
No spoilers from us. You have to watch until the end.
If you would like to sign up for Open Culture’s free email newsletter, please find it here.
If you would like to support the mission of Open Culture, consider making a donation to our site. It’s hard to rely 100% on ads, and your contributions will help us continue providing the best free cultural and educational materials to learners everywhere. You can contribute through PayPal, Patreon, Venmo (@openculture) and Crypto. Thanks!
I constantly see this sentence: “But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong”
.
The polls were NOT “wrong” in 2016. The polls in 2016 indicated it was a very tight race but that Hillary Clinton had a 1-3% edge (depending on the poll.)
.
and what happened? Clinton got approx. 2% more votes than trump did.
.
The trump win was due to a total of approx 30,000 votes in a few specific precincts that gave him the electoral college win.
Exactly. I’m so tired of this same exact thing. The polls in 2016 were correct. Media organizations like NYT just dont want to admit they were actively working with the Clinton Campaign to mask the polling and push the narrative that she couldn’t lose. So instead of admitting to actively abetting with the Clinton campaign it’s easier to just continue the lie.
Tell us. Are they going to use the popular vote or the electoral college.
Are they going to use the popular vote or the electoral college.
He was not the only one to predict a Trump win, either. NYT is doing some sloppy reporting here.
Thank you! I’m so tired of posting that over and over.
BL: vote Joe Biden.
Trump 2020
You’d better hope your wrong I want to keep my social security not have it privatized I would vote for Trump to DOG cAtcher he’s one discible non human being he always says one thing and does the opposite when it comes to putting tarrifs on Conadian aluminium does he not realize they would retaliate it means higher priçes for everthin that’s made from alluminium he hasn’t learned his lesson from putting tarrifs on China he’s a big loud mouth fool he allinates the United States allies and kisses up to the United States enemies what does Russia have on him? He’s a disgrace to the United State of America!
Did his 2016 prediction account for the Russian interference? If not, his prediction was just a lucky guess. If so, he’s got some ‘splaining to do.
Trumps gots to remember what goes around comes around and guess what Carma Bites ya in the Ass
In the off chance Trump does get re-elected will the Democrats accept that or find the next conspiracy?
Uh, which state is that?
This guy is wrong!!!! 💪Trump 2020💪!!! The freaks,dykes,and fags will all get there ❤️ s broke again!!!
If Democrats have Joe Biden as candidate, even earthquake can’t save them. Had there been smart candidate to take on President Trump, his keys might have worked but not this time around as the candidate Joe Biden can’t unlock the white house with all the keys. So Professor this time around your prediction is totally false. I had predicted Bush victory which you are trying to hide behind popular vote. I don’t know as to what excuse you will find this time around. But good luck all the same for trying to predict on the wrong side though.
I don’t like Trump any more
Maya 2020 Trump
In a landslide
I have been right for past 6 and will be right this time . Although harder because you can tell the winner by the primary’s. Simple mathematics of percent of turnouts Per state give you that. Unfortunately this year there really were few for democrats and none for republicans. So ill tirn to the other turnouts. The crowds . And thats a one sided victory for trump..also i believe alot of democrats will be turning republican. And alot of democrats are going to stay home and not vote because they see through all the attacks democrats have done on trump . Democrats are desperate because they lost the supreme court. They could care less who won. They would have attacked anyone the same. This is a win or lose year. So they dont care if their voters see through their evil ways. They usually still vote for them anyways. But not this year. They have gone beyond what their regular voters will stomache. And the way they are using this virus and the riots. I wouldnt doubt they lose more than 20-25%. Really i think much higher but ill state the least..it will be a land slide win for trump and even by the popular vote he will win..there will be a lot of cheating by democrats on counts and many wiill go to jail over it. A hand full or two of extremist.when all is done you will go to sleep on the 3rd of November knowing republicans won the presidency, increased their lead in senate and took back the house. And the democrats are done because trump will most likely add to the supreme court one or most likely 2-3 more supreme court judges. Two leaning left and one right.and there is a big chance for republicans winning again in 2024 and 2028. If pence takes the challenge. If not they will still win with one of the senators that ran against trump in 2016 primary. Save that one for if pence doesn’t take it on..Anyways americas outlook is great. Will beat this virus down, stop the riots and get back to business with bringing back millions of jobs from overseas and start up the manufacturing again like its on steroids .america will be better off than it was before the virus. And it will be so much better for all after it. And the best is america will be morally good again..
If Trump wins this election i will move to Canada. The man is tbe biggest bully i have ever watched and yet his base thinks he is the best. I pray day he loses. I would vote for Mickey Mouse before him.
If Trump gets elected again the USA as we know it today will be over… he is a bigot, and only cares about himself and his rich friends.
If you want things done vote Joe he is going to save the USA…
I ll vote for President Trump. Who wants an old senile wannabe communist in the white house . Not to mention that he wants to raise taxes if he gets elected .I hope Joe doesn’t get elected. Vote for freedom not communism
I don’t know if the reporter was wrong or if Mr. Liichtman was wrong, but Trump was NOT IMPEACHED!!!!!
Also, I do not believe that Biden will win either.
Walter, I totally agree with you. Its nice to see that there are smart people out there and can see what’s really going on. Trump for 2020!!
Do you know how many people, specially in 2016, we’re going to move mostly to Canada and after, was just a BIG LIE NEVER DID IT!!!! ha, ha, ha Just… bla, bla,bla🙋♂️🙋♂️
Janet Suriano: Unless you’re a Canadian Citizen, we DON’T WANT YOU!!! We use a controlled, merit and skills based immigration system, and frankly, coming up out of retaliation will only hurt your chances! Being a ‘dual’ for me is the best of both worlds.
He was impeached. That stays forever. The trial was to decide if he would be removed from office. Like Bill Clinton, Trump WAS impeached but not removed from office. Trump shouldhave been removed because he’s a piece of garbage.
Not only is your comment a non-sequiteur, it’s bats**t. Clinton won the popular. The reason people won’t credit her is Hillary Clinton hatred is a national sport.
Trump will easily win again. Too much to lose if he doesn’t. He will do whatever it takes to have four more years in the White House . He will be 78 in 2024. Four more years of fascism here in the United States ! Time will tell.
Lichtman predicted Gore would beat Bush, and Trump would win the popular vote.
Also, Allan Litchman stood for Senate election in 2006, and lost by a landslide. Strange, NYT now claims all his predictions are spot on…
450 million Americans, and these are the BEST either party can do. A actual Fascist vs. an actual Communist. When can we get a pro-American candidate!?
Okay. We will help you pack.
Thad