Professor Who Picked Every Election Winner Since Ronald Reagan Reveals His Prediction for the 2020 Election

The New York Times writes: “Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over Pres­i­dent Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, how­ev­er, was not. The his­to­ri­an Allan Licht­man was the lone­ly fore­cast­er who pre­dict­ed Mr. Trump’s vic­to­ry in 2016 — and also proph­e­sied the pres­i­dent would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Pro­fes­sor Lichtman’s record goes much deep­er. In 1980, he devel­oped a pres­i­den­tial pre­dic­tion mod­el that ret­ro­spec­tive­ly account­ed for 120 years of U.S. elec­tion his­to­ry. Over the past four decades, his sys­tem has accu­rate­ly called pres­i­den­tial vic­tors, from Ronald Rea­gan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

In the video Op-Ed above, Pro­fes­sor Licht­man walks us through his sys­tem, which iden­ti­fies 13 “keys” to win­ning the White House. Each key is a bina­ry state­ment: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the par­ty in the White House is on its way out”

No spoil­ers from us. You have to watch until the end.

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Comments (32)
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  • Sam H says:

    I con­stant­ly see this sen­tence: “But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong”
    .
    The polls were NOT “wrong” in 2016. The polls in 2016 indi­cat­ed it was a very tight race but that Hillary Clin­ton had a 1–3% edge (depend­ing on the poll.)
    .
    and what hap­pened? Clin­ton got approx. 2% more votes than trump did.
    .
    The trump win was due to a total of approx 30,000 votes in a few spe­cif­ic precincts that gave him the elec­toral col­lege win.

  • Travis C says:

    Exact­ly. I’m so tired of this same exact thing. The polls in 2016 were cor­rect. Media orga­ni­za­tions like NYT just dont want to admit they were active­ly work­ing with the Clin­ton Cam­paign to mask the polling and push the nar­ra­tive that she could­n’t lose. So instead of admit­ting to active­ly abet­ting with the Clin­ton cam­paign it’s eas­i­er to just con­tin­ue the lie.

  • Bobbie says:

    Tell us. Are they going to use the pop­u­lar vote or the elec­toral col­lege.

  • Bobbie says:

    Are they going to use the pop­u­lar vote or the elec­toral col­lege.

  • Mark Smith says:

    He was not the only one to pre­dict a Trump win, either. NYT is doing some slop­py report­ing here.

  • Amy says:

    Thank you! I’m so tired of post­ing that over and over.

  • Rick says:

    BL: vote Joe Biden.

  • Debbie Smith says:

    Trump 2020

  • Wrong says:

    You’d bet­ter hope your wrong I want to keep my social secu­ri­ty not have it pri­va­tized I would vote for Trump to DOG cAtch­er he’s one dis­ci­ble non human being he always says one thing and does the oppo­site when it comes to putting tar­rifs on Cona­di­an alu­mini­um does he not real­ize they would retal­i­ate it means high­er priçes for ever­thin that’s made from allu­mini­um he has­n’t learned his les­son from putting tar­rifs on Chi­na he’s a big loud mouth fool he alli­nates the Unit­ed States allies and kiss­es up to the Unit­ed States ene­mies what does Rus­sia have on him? He’s a dis­grace to the Unit­ed State of Amer­i­ca!

  • Jay says:

    Did his 2016 pre­dic­tion account for the Russ­ian inter­fer­ence? If not, his pre­dic­tion was just a lucky guess. If so, he’s got some ‘splain­ing to do.

  • Steve. Conn says:

    Trumps gots to remem­ber what goes around comes around and guess what Car­ma Bites ya in the Ass

  • Mike says:

    In the off chance Trump does get re-elect­ed will the Democ­rats accept that or find the next con­spir­a­cy?

  • Rusell says:

    Uh, which state is that?

  • Scott says:

    This guy is wrong!!!! 💪Trump 2020💪!!! The freaks,dykes,and fags will all get there ❤️ s broke again!!!

  • Manmohan Kumar says:

    If Democ­rats have Joe Biden as can­di­date, even earth­quake can’t save them. Had there been smart can­di­date to take on Pres­i­dent Trump, his keys might have worked but not this time around as the can­di­date Joe Biden can’t unlock the white house with all the keys. So Pro­fes­sor this time around your pre­dic­tion is total­ly false. I had pre­dict­ed Bush vic­to­ry which you are try­ing to hide behind pop­u­lar vote. I don’t know as to what excuse you will find this time around. But good luck all the same for try­ing to pre­dict on the wrong side though.

  • Joe says:

    I don’t like Trump any more

  • Roger says:

    Maya 2020 Trump
    In a land­slide

  • Tim nonta says:

    I have been right for past 6 and will be right this time . Although hard­er because you can tell the win­ner by the primary’s. Sim­ple math­e­mat­ics of per­cent of turnouts Per state give you that. Unfor­tu­nate­ly this year there real­ly were few for democ­rats and none for repub­li­cans. So ill tirn to the oth­er turnouts. The crowds . And thats a one sided vic­to­ry for trump..also i believe alot of democ­rats will be turn­ing repub­li­can. And alot of democ­rats are going to stay home and not vote because they see through all the attacks democ­rats have done on trump . Democ­rats are des­per­ate because they lost the supreme court. They could care less who won. They would have attacked any­one the same. This is a win or lose year. So they dont care if their vot­ers see through their evil ways. They usu­al­ly still vote for them any­ways. But not this year. They have gone beyond what their reg­u­lar vot­ers will stom­ache. And the way they are using this virus and the riots. I would­nt doubt they lose more than 20–25%. Real­ly i think much high­er but ill state the least..it will be a land slide win for trump and even by the pop­u­lar vote he will win..there will be a lot of cheat­ing by democ­rats on counts and many wiill go to jail over it. A hand full or two of extremist.when all is done you will go to sleep on the 3rd of Novem­ber know­ing repub­li­cans won the pres­i­den­cy, increased their lead in sen­ate and took back the house. And the democ­rats are done because trump will most like­ly add to the supreme court one or most like­ly 2–3 more supreme court judges. Two lean­ing left and one right.and there is a big chance for repub­li­cans win­ning again in 2024 and 2028. If pence takes the chal­lenge. If not they will still win with one of the sen­a­tors that ran against trump in 2016 pri­ma­ry. Save that one for if pence does­n’t take it on..Anyways amer­i­c­as out­look is great. Will beat this virus down, stop the riots and get back to busi­ness with bring­ing back mil­lions of jobs from over­seas and start up the man­u­fac­tur­ing again like its on steroids .amer­i­ca will be bet­ter off than it was before the virus. And it will be so much bet­ter for all after it. And the best is amer­i­ca will be moral­ly good again..

  • Janet Suriano says:

    If Trump wins this elec­tion i will move to Cana­da. The man is tbe biggest bul­ly i have ever watched and yet his base thinks he is the best. I pray day he los­es. I would vote for Mick­ey Mouse before him.

  • Cindy says:

    If Trump gets elect­ed again the USA as we know it today will be over… he is a big­ot, and only cares about him­self and his rich friends.

    If you want things done vote Joe he is going to save the USA…

  • Walter Leonard says:

    I ll vote for Pres­i­dent Trump. Who wants an old senile wannabe com­mu­nist in the white house . Not to men­tion that he wants to raise tax­es if he gets elect­ed .I hope Joe does­n’t get elect­ed. Vote for free­dom not com­mu­nism

  • Sparkle says:

    I don’t know if the reporter was wrong or if Mr. Liicht­man was wrong, but Trump was NOT IMPEACHED!!!!!

    Also, I do not believe that Biden will win either.

  • Cindy Kuba says:

    Wal­ter, I total­ly agree with you. Its nice to see that there are smart peo­ple out there and can see what’s real­ly going on. Trump for 2020!!

  • Pedrin Valbuena says:

    Do you know how many peo­ple, spe­cial­ly in 2016, we’re going to move most­ly to Cana­da and after, was just a BIG LIE NEVER DID IT!!!! ha, ha, ha Just… bla, bla,bla🙋‍♂️🙋‍♂️

  • Tim says:

    Janet Suri­ano: Unless you’re a Cana­di­an Cit­i­zen, we DON’T WANT YOU!!! We use a con­trolled, mer­it and skills based immi­gra­tion sys­tem, and frankly, com­ing up out of retal­i­a­tion will only hurt your chances! Being a ‘dual’ for me is the best of both worlds.

  • Joseph says:

    He was impeached. That stays for­ev­er. The tri­al was to decide if he would be removed from office. Like Bill Clin­ton, Trump WAS impeached but not removed from office. Trump should­have been removed because he’s a piece of garbage.

  • Dana says:

    Not only is your com­ment a non-sequi­teur, it’s bats**t. Clin­ton won the pop­u­lar. The rea­son peo­ple won’t cred­it her is Hillary Clin­ton hatred is a nation­al sport.

  • Renier says:

    Trump will eas­i­ly win again. Too much to lose if he doesn’t. He will do what­ev­er it takes to have four more years in the White House . He will be 78 in 2024. Four more years of fas­cism here in the Unit­ed States ! Time will tell.

  • Greum Maol Stevenson says:

    Licht­man pre­dict­ed Gore would beat Bush, and Trump would win the pop­u­lar vote.

  • Karth says:

    Also, Allan Litch­man stood for Sen­ate elec­tion in 2006, and lost by a land­slide. Strange, NYT now claims all his pre­dic­tions are spot on…

  • WW says:

    450 mil­lion Amer­i­cans, and these are the BEST either par­ty can do. A actu­al Fas­cist vs. an actu­al Com­mu­nist. When can we get a pro-Amer­i­can can­di­date!?

  • Thad K. Bartley says:

    Okay. We will help you pack.

    Thad

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