Predictions for the World in 2008

The Econ­o­mist has issued its pre­dic­tions for the world in 2008, and here’s what they’re bank­ing on: The Democ­rats, and par­tic­u­lar­ly Hillary Clin­ton, nar­row­ly win the upcom­ing pres­i­den­tial elec­tion. Mean­while the Unit­ed States, which has nev­er met a bub­ble it does­n’t like, will get mired down with hous­ing and cred­it prob­lems. And look­ing for a new eco­nom­ic engine, the world will turn to Chi­na and India. Even bet­ter for Chi­na, it will host the Olympics in Bei­jing, win many medals, and feel like it has arrived (or rather re-arrived) as a nation. But per­haps feel­ing a bit too proud, it might ratch­et up ten­sions with Tai­wan, while the U.S. sur­pris­es every­one, even itself, by pos­si­bly strik­ing a “grand bar­gain” with Iran. Oth­er than that, George Bush will accom­plish lit­tle dur­ing the last year of his admin­is­tra­tion, and politi­cians will talk lots about cli­mate change. But whether they actu­al­ly do any­thing is any­one’s guess.

For more pre­dic­tions, check out The Econ­o­mist’s full write-up, and keep an eye on The Econ­o­mist pod­cast (iTunesFeedWeb Site) where I’m sure these issues will get fuller cov­er­age in the com­ing days.

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  • seguros says:

    The Kyoto Pro­to­col: The U.S. ver­sus the World?

    Using a vari­ety of pub­lic opin­ion polls over a num­ber of years and from a num­ber of coun­tries this paper revis­its the ques­tions of cross­na­tion­al pub­lic con­cern for glob­al warm­ing first exam­ined over a decade ago. Although the sci­en­tif­ic com­mu­ni­ty today speaks out on glob­al cli­mat­ic change in essen­tial­ly a uni­fied voice con­cern­ing its anthro­pogenic caus­es and poten­tial dev­as­tat­ing impacts at the glob­al lev­el, it remains the case that many cit­i­zens of a num­ber of nations still seem to har­bor con­sid­er­able uncer­tain­ties about the prob­lem itself. Although it could be argued that there has been a slight improve­ment over the last decade in the public’s under­stand­ing regard­ing the anthro­pogenic caus­es of glob­al warm­ing, the peo­ple of all the nations stud­ied remain large­ly uni­formed about the prob­lem. In a recent inter­na­tion­al study on knowl­edge about glob­al warm­ing, the cit­i­zens of Mex­i­co led all fif­teen coun­tries sur­veyed in 2001 with just twen­ty-six per­cent of the sur­vey respon­dents cor­rect­ly iden­ti­fy­ing burn­ing fos­sil fuels as the pri­ma­ry cause of glob­al warm­ing. The cit­i­zens of the U.S., among the most edu­cat­ed in the world, where some­where in the mid­dle of the pack, tied with the cit­i­zens of Brazil at fif­teen per­cent, but slight­ly low­er than Cubans. In response to Pres­i­dent Bush’s with­draw­al of the Kyoto Pro­to­col in 1991, the U.S. pub­lic appears to be far more sup­port­ive of the action than the cit­i­zens of a num­ber of Euro­pean coun­tries where there was con­sid­er­able out­rage about the deci­sion.

    Car­los Menen­dez

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