Image by Kenneth Zirkel, via Wikimedia Commons
There have been many theories of how human history works. Some, like German thinker G.W.F. Hegel, have thought of progress as inevitable. Others have embraced a more static view, full of “Great Men” and an immutable natural order. Then we have the counter-Enlightenment thinker Giambattista Vico. The 18th century Neapolitan philosopher took human irrationalism seriously, and wrote about our tendency to rely on myth and metaphor rather than reason or nature. Vico’s most “revolutionary move,” wrote Isaiah Berlin, “is to have denied the doctrine of a timeless natural law” that could be “known in principle to any man, at any time, anywhere.”
Vico’s theory of history included inevitable periods of decline (and heavily influenced the historical thinking of James Joyce and Friedrich Nietzsche). He describes his concept “most colorfully,” writes Alexander Bertland at the Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, “when he gives this axiom”:
Men first felt necessity then look for utility, next attend to comfort, still later amuse themselves with pleasure, thence grow dissolute in luxury, and finally go mad and waste their substance.
The description may remind us of Shakespeare’s “Seven Ages of Man.” But for Vico, Bertland notes, every decline heralds a new beginning. History is “presented clearly as a circular motion in which nations rise and fall… over and over again.”
Two-hundred and twenty years after Vico’s 1774 death, Carl Sagan—another thinker who took human irrationalism seriously—published his book The Demon Haunted World, showing how much our everyday thinking derives from metaphor, mythology, and superstition. He also foresaw a future in which his nation, the U.S., would fall into a period of terrible decline:
I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…
Sagan believed in progress and, unlike Vico, thought that “timeless natural law” is discoverable with the tools of science. And yet, he feared “the candle in the dark” of science would be snuffed out by “the dumbing down of America…”
…most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance…
Sagan died in 1996, a year after he wrote these words. No doubt he would have seen the fine art of distracting and misinforming people through social media as a late, perhaps terminal, sign of the demise of scientific thinking. His passionate advocacy for science education stemmed from his conviction that we must and can reverse the downward trend.
As he says in the poetic excerpt from Cosmos above, “I believe our future depends powerfully on how well we understand this cosmos in which we float like a mote of dust in the morning sky.”
When Sagan refers to “our” understanding of science, he does not mean, as he says above, a “very few” technocrats, academics, and research scientists. Sagan invested so much effort in popular books and television because he believed that all of us needed to use the tools of science: “a way of thinking,” not just “a body of knowledge.” Without scientific thinking, we cannot grasp the most important issues we all jointly face.
We’ve arranged a civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.
Sagan’s 1995 predictions are now being heralded as prophetic. As Director of Public Radio International’s Science Friday, Charles Bergquist tweeted, “Carl Sagan had either a time machine or a crystal ball.” Matt Novak cautions against falling back into superstitious thinking in our praise of Demon Haunted World. After all, he says, “the ‘accuracy’ of predictions is often a Rorschach test” and “some of Sagan’s concerns” in other parts of the book “sound rather quaint.”
Of course Sagan couldn’t predict the future, but he did have a very informed, rigorous understanding of the issues of thirty years ago, and his prediction extrapolates from trends that have only continued to deepen. If the tools of science education—like most of the country’s wealth—end up the sole property of an elite, the rest of us will fall back into a state of gross ignorance, “superstition and darkness.” Whether we might come back around again to progress, as Giambattista Vico thought, is a matter of sheer conjecture. But perhaps there’s still time to reverse the trend before the worst arrives. As Novak writes, “here’s hoping Sagan, one of the smartest people of the 20th century, was wrong.”
Note: An earlier version of this post appeared on our site in 2017.
Related Content:
Carl Sagan Presents His “Baloney Detection Kit”: 8 Tools for Skeptical Thinking
Carl Sagan Issues a Chilling Warning to America in His Last Interview (1996)
Philosopher Richard Rorty Chillingly Predicts the Results of the 2016 Election … Back in 1998
Carl Sagan Warns Congress about Climate Change (1985)
Josh Jones is a writer and musician based in Durham, NC. Follow him at @jdmagness
Well seeing this article is looking at today and our future. We have dumbed our children and grandchildren down. They only believe in what is on tictoc or Instagram. Not thinking for themselves. The government is being run by billionaires and racist. Heaven help our country for we are in for the worst time in our country history. Pray that our young people wake up and grow a brain. Before it’s too late.
Well seeing this article is looking at today and our future. We have dumbed our children and grandchildren down. They only believe in what is on tictoc or Instagram. Not thinking for themselves. The government is being run by and racist. Heaven help our country for we are in for the worst time in our country history. Pray that our young people wake up and grow a brain. Before it’s too late.
Well it doesn’t help that our government lies about everything and the news media backs it up with more lies and deceit to full what ever agenda is in place.
“History is “presented clearly as a circular motion in which nations rise and fall… over and over again.””
The past cycles didn’t have nuclear weapons in the equation. NOBODY will acknowledge that the collapse of this iteration of civilization will end in global nuclear war. It is the ONLY outcome.
There isn’t going to be a 2030.
The American people have been used by our government and foreign countries as a meal ticket. Throwing money to every problem with no regard to the people they are taking it from. The President today is starting to do audit of where all that money has gone to what countries and organizations. I personally find it interesting of the information that has come about so far. I understand why there are so many people upset. Both parties are guilty. I hope they fill a big book on the dirty politicians and media, how they got their extra money, and what they have covered up.
This article is two years too late
Another student of culture made similar comments in 1946. See Ernst Cassirer’s conclusion in his “Myth of the State”.
In honor of Carl Sagan, I named my sixth and last child, Sagan. I grew up in a country inspired by Carl and his contemporaries. We were discovering the world around us in a way that allowed the free flow of information, data, and experiences among people of extremely diverse backgrounds. Every day I am increasingly concerned that the platform built on the sweat, blood, and tears of Carl and SO many others, is being methodically and systematically destroyed. Even scarier, it is occurring with the consent of the American people. Our microcosms are colliding at an astonishing rate, and very few are able or willing to compromise if there is even the slightest hint that it creates the appearance of weakness. I fear we are witnessing Carl’s prophecies unfolding and the hostile takeover of the greatest nation to ever exist is already in motion. I ask myself every day, “What can I do in a positive manner to slow the erosion of our foundation and return from the brink of implosion.
In honor of Carl Sagan, I named my sixth and last child, Sagan. I grew up in a country inspired by Carl and his contemporaries. We were discovering the world around us in a way that allowed the free flow of information, data, and experiences among people of extremely diverse backgrounds. Every day I am increasingly concerned that the platform built on the sweat, blood, and tears of Carl and SO many others, is being methodically and systematically destroyed. Even scarier, it is occurring with the consent of the American people. Our microcosms are colliding at an astonishing rate, and very few are able or willing to compromise if there is even the slightest hint that it creates the appearance of weakness. I fear we are witnessing Carl’s prophecies unfolding and the hostile takeover of the greatest nation to ever exist is already in motion. I ask myself every day, “What can I do in a positive manner to slow the erosion of our foundation and return from the brink of implosion.
I am merely eighteen, yet like many of my peers, I fear for our country’s future. Twenty years ago we lived in the age of information, and now we live in the age of disinformation. Our ignorance is killing us, little by little, and too many people are not waking up to it, just as Dr. Sagan has predicted. We have a president that is targeting less than one percent of the population, who has withdrawn from a global organization that leads the world in medical technology and education, and is puppeted by some of the richest, most powerful men in this country. We are heading towards an oligarchy; a country where ignorance leads, and fear controls. What we need, more than ever, is a revolution of science — a second enlightenment. We are plunging ourselves back into the dark ages; our modern-day myths and superstitions consist of pseudoscience and an extreme cognitive dissonance.
To quote Carl himself, “one of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.”
How, you ask, are we being bamboozled? And how are people rejecting evidence of the bamboozle? Who is bambloozing, and who is being bamboozled? These are important questions, silly-sounding words aside. But the answers are unclear. Everyone will have a different way of being bamboozled, a different bamboozler. It is how you figure out your bamboozle — by a falsity, or a discrepancy — that matters. Nobody wants to be fooled, that much is clear. But before you even begin to prove your bamboozlement, you must look deep inside it. That is the basis of skepticism, an integral part of scientific thinking. The overwhelming issue, however, is that there are people who choose not to be skeptics. They do not ask why the sky is blue; they just accept it. They do not research that video they saw on Facebook or TikTok; they believe it.
My conclusion is this: if you choose to lack skepticism at every facet of life, you are going to run the risk of being bamboozled at every facet of life.
In the immortal words of Ghandi “When an idiot is elected to power, the people who voted for him is well represented.”
What does he consider “myth” and “superstition”? I believe Sagan was an atheist. While science is important and he’s correct about manufacturing leaving the U.S., due to globalism by the way, we must not neglect the spiritual. We were a nation that was blessed by God, and if we’re declining it’s because we have forgotten God and worshipped ourselves. Our wealth, our greatness, our power as if we came by it by our own abilities. Our pride is our downfall. “Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools” that includes Sagan.
Carl’s words are truly prophetic. and being unable to know “what’s true” is the direct result of this country’s media pushing their various narratives in direct conflict with the objective presentation of facts. these offenders include abc, nbc, cbs,fox and yes, npr and pri.
lol, blah blah blah.
The socioeconomic/political problems/challenges in the US are not unique to our country but we were supposed to be “better” than the blatantly corrupt, poorly educated “third-world” dictatorships and theocracies. How easily power, money, and greed bent the will of the ruling class and threw sand in the eyes of the masses. I’m no Carl Sagan and even I can see the precipitous decline in real time. It bears to note that Carl Sagan was an avid science and science fiction fan and had read Asimov’s Foundation (https://www.nytimes.com/1978/05/28/archives/growing-up-with.html). Psychohistory does not paint a good picture for our future. The American Ponzi scheme (aka “the dream”) is coming to an end. Authoritarianism is the only way to sustain the oligarchy. It will take a revolution to put us back on track but good luck doing that with such a divided society. The people who are choosing to stay blind to the world’s problems are bound to suffer the consequences… sucks for the rest of us who were willing and able to do better.
But that’s just it…the government DOES NOT lie about everything any more than a holy man always knows what is right or a doctor can cure anything. People are fallible, it is the human condition and it is up to us, to each of us to decide what is real. Can you change the weather on a map with a Sharpie? Of course not, but many powerful leaders want you to believe they are always right. There are only two things you can trust in, gravity and yourself. Everything else is earned by learning, observing and thru experience. Sagan points us back to the scientific method, and if the weatherman says it will rain he made that guess based on observation and experience. The best things we have ever accomplished as a nation came from a partnership between higher learning and government, cooperative learning and cooperative building. If people no longer have faith they have not bothered to search for it, only sulking in their own sadness. It’s time to believe in ourselves again, we can do this!
Carl had it wrong. “Life is Most Important in Life is The Most Important Truth in Life. Anything at all that does not agree with that Truth is always a flat out lie.
Some people refuse to stand for life and are standing on the other side. That’s not everyone.
Needless and preventable suffering and death can only occur after the Truth that Life is Most Important has been dismissed and stifled.
A person who has been shared this Truth, or who makes themselves unavailable to get shared it, and who withholds distribution while simultaneously claiming to represent life’s truthful interests anyway loses their very soul (any possibility of ever having genuine honest human integrity going forward forever) on the spot.
You will never receive a more important communication while you live.
Roughly 50 years aback , I saw the writing on the WALL! All great nations have surfaced and then dived ! Their reliance on themselves as the gifts to humanity !!
The legalization of drugs in this country has moved us a giant step backwards as far as rational thinking and celebration of intellect is concerned.
Come to think of it, many people believe that egypt and other ancient civilizations were far ahead of than us in their time, then maybe what the above article is talking about is true.
Those civilizations did fall after reaching the top of their knowledge and technology.
The same is gonna happen again, today’s youth will not be able to carry forward the system we built, our civilization will fall and then it may rise again.
This is the never-ending cycle of life.
Bullshit. Don’t believe it.
Wow, you’re completely lost on this one. The president today is not doing an audit, but following thru on project 2025 to take complete control of government. He will lie to you to make you think he is finding “bad stuff”. It is an autocratic move like Putin’s Russia. He and his oligarchs will attempt to enrich themselves while providing nothing for the people. He will again try to stay in power after his term is up, claiming he “has to”. He is a conman of the highest order and lies like he breathes, with no shame whatsoever.
That is just your opinion or you’re a troll spreading misinformation as always about our current president. What he is trying to do is hold those in power accountable for stealing our hard earned money from taxes we pay and also reversing the mess they made! All the bullshit we consume that was allowed bc someone got paid off to say it’s ok when it’s something that actually kills us slowly! Smdh all this oligarchy bullshit is just that. It’s so funny to me how ppl seen how evil and greedy the last administration was but yet they still act like Trump is worse even while he is exposing them and their lies lol still that side is spreading misinformation and lies about him bc he’s doing the RIGHT thing! And as someone said earlier in a comment I bet you haven’t even taken the time to research for yourself what is really going on out there bc then you would see what he is trying to do for us and the hold that the deep state has had over our nation and government for years! He withdrew from WHO bc of the horrible things they are trying to do behind the scenes to control us. It has been proven C‑19 was made in a US lab overseen by Fauci!!! Open your damn eyes and read something that has proof to it once in a while!
ol·i·gar·chy
noun
a small group of people having control of a country, organization, or institution.
Bet you didn’t even know what that meant lol they use the truth of what they have done and accuse others of it. The old bait and switch lol We were already ruled by an oligarchy obviously all the big business since the 1900’s have been controlling us behind the scenes for decades and that is what Trump is trying to change! Similar to what Teddy Roosevelt did in the 1900’s. Look it up! Except no one since Teddy has been so courageous to try and undermine the powers that be yet Donald Trump is just the confident man we needed! Seriously read something, look at our history….stop listening to all the idiots making videos on til too and see for yourself. I just had to tell my son the same thing smh….better yet ask God to show you truth and he really will! God bless, I hope you leave something after reading this….
TikTok*
I hope you *Learn something
Who is, or is not our President has no affect. We just experienced 4 years of no President. What shapes our society is families without fathers, children who cannot and do not read and a school system through university that have failed us. The love and worship of money is destroying the fabric of society,politicians become fabulously wealthy and our children want to become rich beyond imagination. No attention is paid to our Spiritual calling.
It all starts at home with the family, the neighbors, the community, the town. Put your house in order, then help your neighbor and then your community. Why do we want our government involved beyond infrastructure and defense. Your life needs to start at home and expand through your sphere of influence. You can’t control what you can’t control. You can make sure your children can read, understand science and mathematics and learn to love their neighbors, community, town..Be a blessing to everyone you meet today, and being happy isn’t feeling good , it is doing good.
But we haven’t seen any accounting of the “audit” that is being done.
There are a lot of people, mostly men, who are ignorant ant they voted for Trump. He’s also ignorant, as clearly shown in his third grade level speeches. He’s a representative of the ignorance and decline in our country. Get rid of Trump and at least that’s a step in the right direction. We need well educated leaders who are willing to work together in the interest of the American people, not Trumps or Trump Republicans. They are only interested in their own welfare and lining their pockets. Trump’s a greedy old man who will only use the office to get richer.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings have been catching up to us for a century.
The “gods of the market place” are the salable advantagious flattering lies.
The “gods of the copybook headings” are the underlying truths. Water woll surely wet. Fire will surely burn.
People want to ignore reality.
And it always catches up to us and burns us.
Kipling wrote about it in 1919. It is just as true a hundred years later.
Prevalent today are the narrow minded and disenchanted people who are like crabs trying to climb out of the pot, stepping over their own people. Having no idea about what history has already written about them.
Example, Ukraine, Europe knows what’s coming for them. They have already experienced it, and they have not forgotten it. These fools in America live in ignorance despite 9/11. Blinded by their own selfish desires.
Divide and conquer has always been the rule, and Americans today are the perfect tool.
Right, Kay Smith !
And anybody who has read William Shirer’s ‘The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” could see this all coming!