Maybe the biggest winÂner of the 2012 presÂiÂdenÂtial elecÂtion, othÂer than Barack ObaÂma, was Nate SilÂver, the young staÂtisÂtiÂcian who runs the 538 blog at the New York Times. As you may recall (it was only a few weeks ago), SilÂver gave PresÂiÂdent ObaÂma roughÂly an 80% — 90% chance of winÂning durÂing the final days of OctoÂber. The talkÂing heads railed against SilÂver, callÂing him an “ideÂoÂlogue” and a “joke.” But, just as SilÂver accuÂrateÂly preÂdictÂed the outÂcome of every SenÂate race durÂing the 2008 elecÂtion cycle, so did he pretÂty much nail the big race of 2012. He estiÂmatÂed ObaÂma would receive 313 elecÂtoral votes, a touch below the 332 the presÂiÂdent actuÂalÂly received. SilÂver was vinÂdiÂcatÂed. It was time to take a vicÂtoÂry lap … and sell a few books.
In late SepÂtemÂber, SilÂver shrewdÂly pubÂlished a new book, The SigÂnal and the Noise: Why Most PreÂdicÂtions Fail but Some Don’t. The book tour evenÂtuÂalÂly, if not inevitably, brought him to Google, where the celebriÂty staÂtisÂtiÂcian fieldÂed quesÂtions from data-lovÂing Googlers for an hour. A grand old time was had by all.
Free coursÂes on Stats and ProbÂaÂbilÂiÂty can be found in the Math secÂtion of our colÂlecÂtion of 550 Free Online CoursÂes.
via GizÂmoÂdo
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