Last month, ChiÂna hit anothÂer major mileÂstone. It passed Japan and became the secÂond largest econÂoÂmy in the world, leavÂing only the US in its way. Give ChiÂna a decade, maybe a litÂtle more, and it will inevitably surge into the lead. That’s the acceptÂed narÂraÂtive.
But then we come across this: the posÂsiÂbilÂiÂty that a mountÂing real estate bubÂble might derail ChiÂna’s plans. This report from AusÂtralian pubÂlic teleÂviÂsion gives you a disÂturbÂing look at how the ChiÂnese govÂernÂment has pumped vast amounts of capÂiÂtal into fixed assets, like comÂmerÂcial and resÂiÂdenÂtial real estate, to keep the counÂtry’s econÂoÂmy growÂing. And what they’re left with is what James Chanos (a hedge fund manÂagÂer) has famousÂly described as “Dubai times one thouÂsand.” Right now, there are an estiÂmatÂed 64 milÂlion empÂty apartÂments in ChiÂna, and approxÂiÂmateÂly 30 bilÂlion square feet of comÂmerÂcial real estate under conÂstrucÂtion — equivÂaÂlent to a five-by-five foot office cubiÂcle for every man, woman and child in ChiÂna. It’s one thing to read these facts, anothÂer thing to see what it all looks like. And that’s the opporÂtuÂniÂty you get above.
For a more preÂcise roadmap of what a ChiÂnese crash might look like, you should spend some time with this piece in CanaÂdiÂan BusiÂness magÂaÂzine.