Four decades ago, our civÂiÂlizaÂtion seemed to stand on the brink of a great transÂforÂmaÂtion. The Cold War had stoked around 35 years of every-intenÂsiÂfyÂing develÂopÂments, includÂing but not limÂitÂed to the Space Race. The perÂsonÂal comÂputÂer had been on the marÂket just long enough for most AmerÂiÂcans to, if not actuÂalÂly own one, then at least to wonÂder if they might soon find themÂselves in need of one. On New Year’s Eve of 1982, The MacÂNeil-Lehrer News Hour offered its viewÂers a glimpse of the shape of things to come by invitÂing a trio of forÂward-lookÂing guests, WasÂn’t the Future WonÂderÂful author Tim Onosko; Omni magÂaÂzine ediÂtor Dick TereÂsi; and, most disÂtinÂguished of all, Isaac AsiÂmov.
As the “author of more than 250 books, light and heavy, ficÂtion and non-ficÂtion, some of the most notable being about the future,” AsiÂmov had long been a go-to interÂvieÂwee for media outÂlets in need of long-range preÂdicÂtions about techÂnolÂoÂgy, sociÂety, and the dynamÂic relaÂtionÂship between the two. (Here on Open CulÂture, we’ve preÂviÂousÂly feaÂtured his specÂuÂlaÂtions from 1983, 1980, 1978, 1967, and 1964.) Robert MacÂNeil opens with a natÂurÂal subÂject for any sciÂence-ficÂtion writer: mankind’s forÂays into outÂer space, and whether AsiÂmov sees “anyÂthing left out there.” AsiÂmov’s response: “Oh, everyÂthing.”
In the earÂly eightÂies, the man who wrote the FounÂdaÂtion series saw humanÂiÂty as “still in the ChristoÂpher ColumÂbus stage as far as space is conÂcerned,” foreÂseeÂing not just space staÂtions but “solar powÂer staÂtions,” “labÂoÂraÂtoÂries and facÂtoÂries that can do things in space that are difÂfiÂcult or imposÂsiÂble to do on Earth,” and even “space setÂtleÂments in which thouÂsands of peoÂple can be housed more or less perÂmaÂnentÂly.” In the fullÂness of time, the goal would be to “build a largÂer and more elabÂoÂrate civÂiÂlizaÂtion and one which does not depend upon the resources of one world.”
As for “the comÂputÂer age,” asks Jim Lehrer; “have we crestÂed on that one as well”? AsiÂmov knew full well that the comÂputÂer would be “at the cenÂter of everyÂthing.” Just as had hapÂpened with teleÂviÂsion over the preÂviÂous genÂerÂaÂtion, “comÂputÂers are going to be necÂesÂsary in the house to do a great many things, some in the way of enterÂtainÂment, some in the way of makÂing life a litÂtle easÂiÂer, and everyÂone will want it.” There were many, even then, who could feel real exciteÂment at the prospect of such a future. But what of robots, which, as even AsiÂmov knew, would come to “replace human beings?”
“It’s not that they kill them, but they kill their jobs,” he explains, and those who lose the old jobs may not be equipped to take on any of the new ones. “We are going to have to accept an imporÂtant role — sociÂety as a whole — in makÂing sure that the tranÂsiÂtion periÂod from the pre-robotÂic techÂnolÂoÂgy to the post-robotÂic techÂnolÂoÂgy is as painÂless as posÂsiÂble. We have to make sure that peoÂple aren’t treatÂed as though they’re used up dishrags, that they have to be allowed to live and retain their self-respect.” Today, the techÂnolÂoÂgy of the moment is artiÂfiÂcial intelÂliÂgence, which the news media haven’t hesÂiÂtatÂed to pay near-obsesÂsive attenÂtion to. (I’m travÂelÂing in Japan at the moment, and saw just such a broadÂcast on my hotel TV this mornÂing.) Would that they still had an AsiÂmov to disÂcuss it with a levÂel-headÂed, far-sightÂed perÂspecÂtive.
RelatÂed conÂtent:
Isaac AsiÂmov PreÂdicts in 1983 What the World Will Look Like in 2019: ComÂputÂerÂiÂzaÂtion, GlobÂal Co-operÂaÂtion, Leisure Time & Moon MinÂing
Isaac AsiÂmov PreÂdicts the Future on The David LetÂterÂman Show (1980)
Isaac AsiÂmov PreÂdicts the Future of CivÂiÂlizaÂtion — and RecÂomÂmends Ways to Ensure That It SurÂvives (1978)
BuckÂminÂster Fuller, Isaac AsiÂmov & OthÂer FuturÂists Make PreÂdicÂtions About the 21st CenÂtuÂry in 1967: What They Got Right & Wrong
In 1964, Isaac AsiÂmov PreÂdicts What the World Will Look Like Today: Self-DriÂving Cars, Video Calls, Fake Meats & More
Nine SciÂence-FicÂtion Authors PreÂdict the Future: How Jules Verne, Isaac AsiÂmov, William GibÂson, Philip K. Dick & More ImagÂined the World Ahead
Based in Seoul, ColÂin MarÂshall writes and broadÂcasts on cities, lanÂguage, and culÂture. His projects include the SubÂstack newsletÂter Books on Cities, the book The StateÂless City: a Walk through 21st-CenÂtuÂry Los AngeÂles and the video series The City in CinÂeÂma. FolÂlow him on TwitÂter at @colinmarshall or on FaceÂbook.